Saturday, March 19, 2011

How to Qualify to the AFCCC w/o winning TWO Games

Was listening to the news yesterday night, and I almost fell off my chair when the sports reporter announced that we need TWO WINS to go through to the AFC Challenge Cup 2012.

That's utterly false, and really one should investigate further before reporting fallacies on primetime TV.

We CAN go through with ONE WIN and TWO DRAWS.

Here's how it works :
The top two teams go through. But how do we determine the top two teams?

One win = 3 points.
One draw = 1 point.
One loss = 0 points.

The top two teams are the teams with the most POINTS after the three game qualilfying tournament.

Here is the complete schedule for our group :


21 March 2011 15:30
MYANMAR - Philippines 

21 March 2011 18:00
PALESTINE - Bangladesh

23 March 2011 15:30
Philippines - PALESTINE

23 March 2011 18:00
BANGLADESH-MYANMAR

25 March 2011 15:30
BANGLADESH - Philippines

25 March 2011 15:30
MYANMAR-PALESTINE


Here is an example of how we can progress : 

vs Myanmar -- DRAW.
vs Palestine -- DRAW.
vs Bangladesh -- WIN.

We would have a total of 5 points.

NOW, depending on other team's results, that MAY be enough to get us through.

Sample Results : 

21 March 2011 15:30
MYANMAR - Philippines  : Draw.

21 March 2011 18:00
PALESTINE - Bangladesh : Draw.

23 March 2011 15:30
Philippines - PALESTINE : Draw.

23 March 2011 18:00
BANGLADESH-MYANMAR : MYA WIN.

25 March 2011 15:30
BANGLADESH - Philippines : PHI WIN.

25 March 2011 15:30
MYANMAR-PALESTINE : MYA WIN.

In the above scenario, the standings will be :

                     W       L        D       Points

Myanmar       2       0          1         7
Philippines     1       0         2         5
Palestine       0       1         2         2
Bangladesh   0       2         1         1


In this case, Myanmar and the Philippines (the top two teams) go through.
The Azkals go through even though we drew two games and won only one game.

This should dispel the notion that we SHOULD win two games to do so.
OF COURSE, winning two games would make the task so much easier, but winning one (and drawing two) COULD be enough, depending on the other results.

As Fire Quinito pointed out, we did only win one game back in December in the Suzuki Cup (and drew two), and we went on to the semi-finals.

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So please, don't misinform the general public. Let's educate them on how football works. 
It may be a bit difficult. Coming from a basketball point of view, what is a freakin 'draw'?
But this Football 101 should be done.

For us to be true footballing nation, as Sev Sarmenta said.

14 comments:

  1. This is a very great way and example of teaching football newbies, in Layman's terms. And looks like your sample predictions came true. Kudos to you!

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  2. Thanks for reading.
    Actually, a draw against the hopes was my expectation. Sayang lang nga, we dropped two points.

    On to the next game!

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  3. Here are the 4 Groups.

    http://www.the-afc.com/en/afc-challenge-cup-2012-schedule-results?view=Competitions&id=408

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  4. True. Probably the only reason I can think of why the reporter told that is because of the notion that getting 5 or more points in the group stage is enough to get you through.

    Oh well, atleast we got something from a game with the home team and that is something. Lets just focus on the next match ahead

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  5. the notion of winning 2 games came from the pretense of needing to win the group to advance to the knockout phase... as the 2008 AFCCC qualifying (where the Azkals lost on goal difference to Tajikistan) allowed just the group winners to advance. in the last AFCCC qualifying, the best-ranked runner-up also advanced.

    i'm not entirely sure if wikipedia is right, but if so... it's good that you cleared the issue of the group stage points system for the benefit of those unfamiliar with how it works.

    just incase wikipedia is wrong, the Azkals have to top the group whether it takes winning the next 2 games or edging out the rest of the teams in points and goal-difference.

    -paolylo

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  6. even a 1-1-1 (W-D-L) 4pts would get us through if, just in case, we actually lose to Palestine and win against Bangladesh. And if and only if Palestine beats Myanmar and then Myanmar drawing with Bangladesh.

    So,
    PAL 3-0-0 9Pts
    PHI 1-1-1 4Pts
    MYN 0-3-0 3
    BNG 0-0-3 0

    just like how Malaysia got through group A of the 2010 AFF Suzuki Cup last December and eventually capturing their first Championship.

    And Goal difference plays a big role in this group stage. but we all trust Neil with that on goal.

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  7. or, we could win against palestine and bangladesh to get our score to 7

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  8. buti nalang meron nagexplain ng maayos. nagulat din ako nung napanood ko yung news, ilang beses pang inulit ulit.

    been trying to help educate my non footballing friends tapos minsanan lang kung magair sila ng unfounded announcements such as this. hayz, pwede naman kasi igoogle paano ang scoring sa football group stages.

    FAIL.

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  9. yeah, listened to dyan castillejo's drivel about having to win 2 games to qualify..totally misleading the fans ..shes a "sportscaster" she should know her stuff - this tournament is pretty standard in format - parang world cup, dont tell me she doesnt follow the WC?

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  10. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  11. Well im absolutely sure 2 wins would guarantee us a spot for either of the TOP TWO. I guess thats what Dyan and the media wants to put out. its what we aim for really. Hopefully.


    just to correct my first post earlier:
    W-D-L
    PAL 3-0-0 9Pts
    PHI 1-1-1 4Pts
    MYN 0-2-1 2
    BNG 0-0-3 0

    ***this is the worst case scenario i can see it
    i dont think 3 draws will make the cut. but we cant depend on other teams we must win win win


    Laban Azkals!

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